Crypto Seasonality
Bitcoin Monthly Returns by Year
Every Bitcoin (BTC) cell below is computed from daily price data: monthly return = this month-end close ÷ previous month-end close − 1; YTD = year-end ÷ prior year-end − 1. The % Positive row shows how often each month finished green across all available years.
Bitcoin (BTC-USD) Monthly Returns by Year
Jul 20, 2015 – Aug 10, 2026 · 12 yrs · Coinbase daily candles
Historically strongest: October (+19.1% avg, green in 9 of 11 years). Weakest: September (-1.8% avg, green in 5 of 11 years).
| Year | YTD | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | ▼ Sep | ▲ Oct | Nov | Dec | Start | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -25.8% | -10.1% | -14.9% | +1.9% | +11.8% | -3.6% | -20.5% | +7.4% | +3.4% | — | — | — | — | $87,498 | $64,952 |
| 2025 | -6.3% | +9.7% | -17.7% | -2.1% | +14.1% | +11.1% | +2.4% | +8.0% | -6.5% | +5.4% | -4.0% | -17.5% | -3.2% | $93,354 | $87,498 |
| 2024 | +121% | +0.6% | +43.8% | +16.5% | -15.0% | +11.3% | -7.1% | +3.1% | -8.7% | +7.3% | +10.9% | +37.4% | -3.2% | $42,288 | $93,354 |
| 2023 | +156% | +39.9% | +0.1% | +23.0% | +2.7% | -6.9% | +11.9% | -4.1% | -11.3% | +4.0% | +28.5% | +8.9% | +12.1% | $16,530 | $42,288 |
| 2022 | -64.2% | -16.7% | +12.2% | +5.4% | -17.3% | -15.6% | -37.1% | +16.6% | -14.0% | -3.1% | +5.5% | -16.2% | -3.7% | $46,211 | $16,530 |
| 2021 | +59.4% | +14.3% | +36.5% | +30.0% | -1.7% | -35.5% | -6.0% | +18.4% | +13.5% | -7.0% | +40.0% | -7.1% | -18.9% | $28,990 | $46,211 |
| 2020 | +305% | +30.3% | -8.7% | -24.6% | +34.2% | +9.5% | -3.3% | +24.2% | +2.7% | -7.5% | +28.1% | +42.8% | +47.1% | $7,166 | $28,990 |
| 2019 | +94.1% | -7.6% | +11.2% | +8.0% | +28.7% | +62.3% | +25.8% | -6.3% | -4.8% | -13.5% | +10.3% | -17.5% | -5.2% | $3,692 | $7,166 |
| 2018 | -73.4% | -27.1% | +2.1% | -32.8% | +33.4% | -19.0% | -14.7% | +21.1% | -9.2% | -5.8% | -4.6% | -36.9% | -7.1% | $13,863 | $3,692 |
| 2017 | +1324% | -0.3% | +23.2% | -8.9% | +27.1% | +66.4% | +6.6% | +16.4% | +66.1% | -8.5% | +48.5% | +53.7% | +40.0% | $973 | $13,863 |
| 2016 | +126% | -14.5% | +18.6% | -4.7% | +9.1% | +17.0% | +26.8% | -6.9% | -8.6% | +6.3% | +14.4% | +6.6% | +31.1% | $430 | $973 |
| 2015 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | -19.1% | +2.8% | +32.8% | +19.7% | +14.2% | — | $430 |
| Average | +183% | +1.7% | +9.7% | +1.1% | +11.6% | +8.8% | -1.4% | +8.9% | +0.3% | -1.8% | +19.1% | +6.7% | +9.4% | ||
| Median | +94.1% | -0.3% | +11.2% | +1.9% | +11.8% | +9.5% | -3.3% | +8.0% | -7.6% | -3.1% | +14.4% | +6.6% | -3.2% | ||
| % Positive | 45% | 73% | 55% | 73% | 55% | 45% | 73% | 33% | 45% | 82% | 55% | 45% | |||
Heads up: this is only 12 years of data — a small sample. Monthly seasonality is a weak, easily-overfit signal that can flip with a single big year. Treat it as context, not a trade.
✓ Every year reconciles — the twelve monthly returns compound to the displayed YTD.